We're all (half) wrong about the "average" gunfight (x-post r/guns)

Hey yall, I’ve been working on a policy review piece for the journal put out by the Polisci department here and one aspect of my paper deals with threats to police officers. I decided to take a quick detour from my research to try and dissect the anatomy of the gunfight.I’ve always been really unsatisfied with descriptions of the “average” gunfight along with the nebulous “according to the FBI” frequently thrown in so I decided to do the research myself. Data was pulled from a number of sources including the FBI Uniform Crime Report, the Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted (LEOKA) program, over 200 incident reports from the Dallas Police Department, a report from the San Diego County District Attorney’s Office, the New York Police Department Annual Firearms Discharge Report, and the Deadly Force Statistical Analysis from the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department.Definitely keep in mind that this is not at all truly representative of the “average” gunfight since I only pulled from a number of sources specific to officer-involved shootings (OIS). Further complicating this is the variance of reporting fidelity, the innumerable other factors influencing a gunfight, and the occurrence of anomalies I chose to exclude (like the 2016 Dallas sniper attack). However, there’s no doubt that this data is very eye-opening and confirms some of what we already know while challenging conventional wisdom frequently repeated in many firearms classes.TimeThe Las Vegas Metro PD report includes the time of day for OIS incidents and unsurprisingly, most occur in the afternoon with a fairly even split between the ranges of noon to 6 PM and 6 PM to Midnight. However, there were still a fair number of incidents that occurred in the morning, with totals roughly equal to the number of shootings found in either of the previously mentioned hour ranges.DistanceThis was a real eye-opener for me. In the NYPD report, only 26 percent of gunfights occurred within 10 feet. A further 20% occurred between 11 to 15 and 54% occurred beyond the ranges of 15 feet. This stands in direct opposition to the assumption that most gunfights occur at extremely close range. This is further confirmed by the Las Vegas Metro PD report which saw distances as low as 1 foot to as high as 165 feet. When that single anomalous firing distance of 165 feet is excluded, the average firing distance settles at 21.8 feet, roughly 7 yards.Subject WeaponThe most common subject weapon was unsurprisingly a handgun. In the broader context of all officer-involved shootings, the handgun figure is closely followed by knives, vehicles and bare fists. In addition, long guns were very rarely used. From 2003 to 2016, long guns were used in just 6% of officer-involved shootings in Dallas. In San Diego, long guns were used in 9% of OIS from 1993 to 2012 and in New York, just 3% in 2015.“Good Guy” WeaponThe most common weapon employed by the officer was the duty handgun. This is likely due to the unsuspected nature of how some gunfights unfold and the inability for the officer to return to the vehicle in order to retrieve a long gun. This may be pertinent to those of us who stow long guns as “truck guns” as a self-defense option.Shots FiredOut of 211 incidents in Dallas, 117 were resolved within 3 shots fired. That might add some confidence to some of you who bank on that “3 shots” statistic but that’s not a safe assumption. 58 incidents required 4 to 10 shots fired and 36 required even more. Incidents where only 3 shots were required might make up a majority but it’s not a very strong one and you’re really playing the odds here.The Dallas PD numbers revealed an average of 6.75 shots fired per incident. That’s an important distinction because in many shootings, multiple officers were involved so there was a slight upward skew in the number of shots fired. The Las Vegas Metro PD stated that 7 shots were fired per incident, practically the same as the data from Dallas but also went on to note that each officer fired an average of 4.7 shots per incident, something much more applicable to the individual. However, always remember that there’s a fairly significant number of instances where far more might be required.Hit Probability and AccuracyThere was a lot of variance in hit probability which was further complicated by differences in reporting fidelity. The NYPD report leaves out hit probability altogether, deferring to “objective completion rates” with their justification being that some subjects run away, obscuring the ability to determine the number of hits, and their prioritization of putting the subject down. I don’t necessarily agree with that, considering there was that 2012 incident where 9 bystanders were struck and the police commissioner stated “I believe it was well handled.”The incident reports from Dallas suggested a hit probability of 21.47% or roughly 1 in 5 shots striking the subject. Accuracy out of the Las Vegas Metro PD was pretty good at about half of all shots fired within 21 feet striking the subject but it never gets much higher than that. Accuracy in an inherently chaotic situation like a gunfight will always suffer.ConclusionsDefinitely take this with a grain of salt because the threats that police officers face are very different from what armed citizens face (among other factors) but it’s a very telling analysis of what a gunfight looks like and how it unfolds. The data’s a clear wakeup call that we should expect gunfights and defensive scenarios to occur at greater distances than previously thought while requiring more rounds. Always carry spare mags and even if you don’t think you’ll need the extra ammo, carry the mags anyway so you can fix malfunctions. Start practicing with your sub-compacts and snub noses at greater ranges because the assumption that these are “belly guns” are self-fulfilling prophecies that limit your ability to use them past what you’ve trained for.Training for the 3-3-3 scenario, 3 shots 3 yards 3 seconds, is simply not enough. There’s nothing new about that statement but more importantly, the broader assumption that most gunfights are resolved within 3 shots at close range is a complete myth.I really hope this information was helpful for yall. Thanks for reading!You can find most of my data compilation hereTLDR The average gunfight occurs in the afternoon, is fought at 7 yards against a subject armed with a handgun, and sees a handgun-armed “good guy” firing roughly 5 rounds of which less than half strike the subject.Edit: @ the mods, could this go in the FAQ? via /r/CCW http://ift.tt/2nqmpdF