Thursday, January 26, 2017

500k to 1 Million DGU’s per year statistic and why you need to stop using it


Tl:Dr- The CDC statistic of 500,000 to 1 million Defensive Gun Uses per year is wildly inaccurate due to outdated sampling techniques and wrongly extrapolated data. A closer guess, but still a wild guess made by the CDC, is 100,000 Defensive Gun uses per year. Conclusion – New research is needed to get a better estimate.The most quoted and often used 2010 CDC study did not conduct their own research, but instead used outdated studies from 1988, 1993 and 2004 by Gary Kleck (a professor at FSU.) (The CDC studied other studies. Which is just as good as averaging averages.) Kleck used a random sample of about 5000 people, but used what is now considered very poor questioning techniques. WikiA different 1993 study tried these following questions: Have you been a victim of a crime? Did you own a gun? Have you used your gun for self-protection? These three questions were found to be flawed as well and the data collected vastly under reports DGU’s. This survey was not completely anonymous which can cause people to not report accurately. The flaws of this study are many - 1) Many people will not disclose they have been a victim of a crime (under report). 2) Many people own a gun that shouldn’t legally or carry a gun illegally. They will not answer the question truthfully (under report). 3) Did they use the gun for self-protection while they were committing the crime (false positive)? Did they use the gun in defense of a bear attack (false positive)?What is needed in the future? A random study with anonymous individuals (that don’t lie) that has questions that are only accessible after answering previous questions. The study needs to be aimed at gun use and defense, and shouldn’t be nearly as broad as the previous studies. The new study is also dealing with a population with a much higher CCW rate and states with Constitutional Carry. Additionally, studying studies is terrible and the CDC should feel bad for even publishing their findings.This is a short synopsis of how I understand this CDC study and is a quick summary. There are plenty of articles on the web debunking the study, but the best thing I found was this Podcast from last summer. Science Vs via /r/CCW http://ift.tt/2kxsaoV

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