How to refute the 'You'll never need a gun' argument

Well meaning friends or relatives often tell us it's extremely unlikely we'll ever need a gun.They are wrong. The real life arithmetic goes like this:2018 FBI data says 368.9 Americans per 100,000 reported violent victimization. Therefore, the average American runs a .003689 chance of violent victimization every year, assuming every violent crime is reported and recorded by the FBI.Sounds like a low risk, right? 1-.003689 = .996311 means a 99.6311% chance you won't be a victim... THIS YEAR.A 99.6311% percent chance per year, extended over your lifetime, is .99631180, assuming you live 80 years. .99631180 is .744036, the probability you will go 80 CONSECUTIVE YEARS without victimization, so there's a 1-.744036 = .25596, or 25.6% chance YOU WILL BE VICTIMIZED.A little better than one chance in four isn't 'extremely unlikely.' via /r/CCW https://ift.tt/2O6oqav